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• Comment Link Sabato, 08 Ottobre 2022 13:25 posted by tccwebas01.tcc.fl.edu

  By Dharamraj Lalit Dhutia
  
  MUMBAI, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The selloff in Indian government bonds may pause, with the benchmark 10-year yield consolidating around the 7.50% level, as the central bank is likely to soon shift focus from inflation to economic
  growth, Bank of Baroda's head of treasury said Friday.
  
  
  "Our view is that the 7.50% level is what the yield will settle at the top end," said Sushanta Mohanty, general manager-treasury at Bank of Baroda.
  
  
  "There may be some sporadic move above 7.50% and we may see value buying at 7.50% and above, provided there are no global geopolitical shocks."
  
  India's 10-year benchmark 7.26% 2032 bond yield was trading
  at 7.51%, up 11 basis points (bps) so far this week after
  rising 21 bps in September.
  
  However, Mohanty currently prefers 10-year bonds as he expects "some more pain" for shorter-term debt.
  
  
  The Reserve Bank of India has hiked its repo rate by 140 basis points from May through September to tackle elevated inflation, including a 50 bps increase
  on Sept.
  
  30 that did not lead to any major selloff in bonds.
  
  
  Mohanty expects the RBI may only go for another 35 bps hike before
  taking a pause as it needs to maintain a balance.
  
  
  "The general consensus seems to be another 50-60 bps of rate increases. Our view is that after the repo rate reaches the 6.25% level, the RBI may need to take a pause and take into consideration the impact on growth," Mohanty said.
  
  
  
  India's headline retail inflation is expected to have stayed above the RBI's tolerance range for the ninth straight month in September, but Mohanty expects inflation to ease in coming months.
  
  
  He also doesn't believe that the delay in the inclusion of Indian bonds in global indexes will push up yields incrementally as foreign ownership of bonds
  has remained muted over the past couple of years,
  with the bulk of the demand from local players like banks, mutual funds,
  insurers and some corporates.
  
  Earlier this week, J.P.
  
  Morgan refrained from adding Indian bonds to its emerging
  market local currency debt index this year, as was hoped for.
  
  
  "Even without index inclusion in the current half, bond supply will go through with domestic players acting as buyers."
  
  Mohanty expects demand from banks to remain strong as
  a pickup in government spending in the second half will
  improve liquidity, while a rise in banks' deposit base would give lenders leeway to
  add more debt.
  
  (Reporting by Dharamraj Lalit Dhutia; Editing by
  Savio D'Souza)
  
  
  
  
  Kilju North Korea (tccwebas01.tcc.fl.edu)
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